Time to wage peace- Occupied Palestine- Political considerations at 17 Jan 2024
The annual expenditure on weapons globally is $2,2 trillion of which the USA spends the most, some $801 bn. This is by far the biggest of any country in the world. The global expense is also connected to other countries to whom the US imperialists sell arms. Thus the actual weight of US imperialism is by far the biggest in the world.
It follows that US imperialism needs war every year otherwise their arms industry would collapse. This would impact on the rest of its economy and its banks because they rest on the arms industry.
The 2003 invasion of Iraq by US imperialism and the subsequent murder of 1 million Iraqis on the fake notion that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, marked a new qualitative low in the capitalist epoch. US imperialism spent $3 trillion on the war, giving huge profits to the arms manufacturers and the banks that underpin them. Thus we entered the period where wars were created out of nothing for the sake of capitalist imperialist profits.
The case of occupied Palestine
This explains why there was so much lies told by the mainstream press and the zionist regime over the events of Oct 7-10 2023. Each of their lies have been disproved but they don’t care, imperialism need war and this is why they oppose any ceasefire. It is nothing to do with ‘justice’ for Israelis but everything to do with the need for war profits.
It follows that the best weapon we can use against the war mongers is to do everything we can to work for peace.
When negotiations were about to make a breakthrough, imperialism and its Zionist allies assassinated Hamas leaders (Arouri and others) that were indirectly involved in the negotiations. This was deliberate to prevent peace and to instigate war. This assassination was followed up by killing of a key Hezbollah military commander, followed quickly by a mass killing of over 100 people at the Soleimani commemoration by Isis (who we all know is an imperialist creation). Imperialism knew that such massive provocation would give the Palestinian resistance no option but to break off negotiations and for counter-attacks to be launched by Hezbollah and Iran. This is exactly what imperialism wanted. They want war. Their industry depend on it, no matter it has been proved to be based on lies.
These are some of the factors to be considered:
Cracks in the Israeli armed forces and masses
Several of the Israeli upper class, such as Netanyahu, have sent their military age children overseas. They are fully prepared to sacrifice other youth in their own quest for profits and their own careers as well as to carry out the terror against the Palestinian masses and the masses in the region on behalf of US imperialism.
The Israeli regime and imperialism never really cared about the captives nor about the lives of the Jewish Israeli masses This is shown in a number of ways:
- Most of the civilians killed from 7 – 10 Oct 2023 were executed by US-made high explosive tank shells from Israeli tanks. The preferred to bomb the resistance along with their captives who were still in the Kibbutzim from 7 – 10 Oct 2023. This was not a decision made by a local commander but the order must have come from the central command. Thus Netanyahu must have known and must have given the go-ahead for the shooting of Israeli civilians. He was acting on the instructions of the Pentagon. This execution of Israeli citizens by the Israeli tanks was because imperialism could not lose even a millimetre of its main military base in the Middle East, namely Israel, for any extended period. As we knew all along, the Israeli masses are expendable cannon fodder for the aims of US imperialism and other imperialists as well. The strategic importance of Israel as a terror apparatus in the Middle East is more important to imperialism than the lives of individual Israelis. The Pentagon is in total control of the Israeli military. They supply the weapons and technology since 1948 and have been and still are in direct control of any action of the Israeli armed forces.
- The carpet bombing of Gaza, targeting and terrorising the Palestinian masses demonstrated that imperialism did not care for the lives of the captives. They knew some of the captives would be killed. They did not care and still don’t care. The imperialists need war and the killing of the Israelis held captives by US-made bombs is quite acceptable to them.
- The flooding of the tunnels with seawater is another example of imperialism not caring for the lives of the captives who may have been held in the tunnels.
- The sending of over 100 000 inexperienced reservists into a guerilla battle when negotiations were a clear alternative, is another example of the total disregard imperialism has for the lives of the Israeli youth. Israel has a ingrained system of administrative detention. This is a permanent legalised system of the Israeli state taking hostages from the Palestinians since 1948. Thus there has developed a resistance method of taking captives from Israelis to later exchange for those held in Israeli prisons. This has been happening for years. Negotiations has been the norm in these cases. In this case the greatly exaggerated events of the 7 Oct 2023, which was essentially a mass captive -taking event by the Palestinian resistance, was turned into a war against all Palestinians in Gaza. In the process, hundreds of the Israeli youth lost their lives in battle and tens of thousands seriously injured and maimed. Thousands more will carry psychological scars from the genocidal campaign which has killed elders, babies, women and innocent civilians in general.
- The delaying tactics of Netanyahu that has sought war over a negotiated settlement and who has tried to prolong the war at all costs, also shows the total disregard of the Israeli masses by the Israeli regime and imperialism.
Zionism- a death cult, is imploding
Zionism, a contradictory cult that espouses Socialist values for one group and that regards the rest of humanity as sub-human, is slowly dying. This genocide is accelerating that process.
In truth the Kibbutzim were never economically viable and rely for their existence on constant state subsidy. The farming produce is subsidized also by Palestinian slave labour as well as huge subsidy by imperialism that compels various countries around the world to import their rather ordinary produce.
The growing tech industry brings Israelis in contact with people around the world. There is the sobering realization that Zionism does not bring any competitive advantage and that it is but one player on the world stage. In order for tech to grow it has to learn from others. This realisation that they have to learn from others is also exploding the myth of Zionist exceptionalism. It is ironic that advancement in science through university study also implodes zionism because it brings the Israeli youth in contact with world culture.
Only a tiny minority of Israelis are involved in the Kibbutzim so the process of imploding is quite widespread.
What has sustained Zionism is the over 100 years of support by imperialism. This brainwashing process that privileges one group and dehumanises another section of the population is what was the basis of the Rwanda genocide, it was the basis of the Nakba, it is the basis of the current genocide in Gaza. These divisions have deliberately been created by imperialism and sustained by them over decades. Division of this kind is part of the strategy of imperialism to maintain its control over both sections of the divided population. In the case of Israel it is used as a cash cow for the weapons industry. The spin off is that imperialism is able to arm its puppets in the entire region as well. Permanent war, or the threat of it is what is necessary for the growth of the arms industry.
The kind treatment by the Palestinian resistance of their captives has exploded the notion of their being sub-human. They are showing in practice to be more humane than any example presented by Zionism. This is also why the imperialism is desperate to falsify the facts around Oct 7 and why they go to the extent of even killing those captives held in Gaza. It was no accident that the 4 soldiers were executed by the Israeli army when they tried to approach the IDF on the streets of Gaza. Imperialism and the Zionist regime were so desperate to maintain the image of the Palestinians being sub-human, they butchered them in broad daylight and even hunted one of them down even though it was abundantly plain he was an escaped captive.
The realization that Israelis are expendable tools of imperialism is also helping to undermine the Zionism myth.
Economic collapse of Israel
Israel has an annual trade deficit of $30bn. This means that imperialism keeps it artificially alive. Now, in addition to the usual annual support by imperialism, Israel is facing further economic collapse. The Israeli Bank Governor warned of severe impact if the genocidal war continues. They need the war to end. 100 000 Palestinians from the West Bank are excluded from labour in Israel which had created a situation that there are too few workers to pick the fruit. Thousands of migrant workers from other countries have also left. Many of the agricultural regions is covered with trees where the fruit has been left to rot. It is ironic that Israel’s genocide in Gaza has caused its agricultural sector to collapse. Although Intel has signalled increased investment in southern Israel they have clearly indicated that if there is a failure to deliver it would cause them to seek other more ‘stable’ places like Ireland. There has been a decline in investment in the Tech sector. The state has offered $100 million in subsidy but with the skilled labour in tanks in Gaza the offer is more a desperate attempt to lure capital to stay. Capital has no loyalty to Israel if it means their immediate and medium term profits will be dented by a failure to deliver.
Over the peak of the end of year holiday season the tourism industry collapsed due to the genocide. In addition, the agriculture and construction sectors collapsed due to absence of Palestinian labour power. Ironically the carpet bombing of Gaza has severely impacted construction in Israel. Construction workers are not easy to replace as there would be safety issues if unskilled replacement labour is brought in. In addition, the export of cut and polished diamonds fell by 62.9% in 2023. This shows the global impact of boycott of blood diamonds.
In addition, hundreds of thousands of economically active workers are in the combat zones. This has severely weakened economic activity. With at least 20 000 unable to return to work when the genocide ends, the impact will be severe.
The university academic year has already started after being already delayed to 31 December 2023. Two weeks have already passed. If another 2 months pass it means that tens of thousands of Israeli students stand to lose the entire academic year. This will have a long term impact on their economy and cause huge frustration among the student youth, especially when they realise that the war was based on lies.
The rise of refuseniks
There are already increasing numbers of youth who have openly refused to serve in the IDF. No matter their numbers are small at the moment, the fact that they are rather prepared to face prison than serve even in an admin capacity, reflects a growing resentment among the youth against the Zionist regime. Already there are at least 2000 youth who did not turn up for service in the IDF. These numbers are growing and place a huge political pressure on the regime. These numbers are sure to grow as each day it becomes clearer that the genocidal campaign was based on lies and hundreds lost their lives and tens of thousands maimed for life because of it.
The mass protests in Tel Aviv
The growing realisation that the regime and US imperialism does not care for the lives of their captives in Gaza, for the lives of the young soldiers and that the entire exercise is a means for the corrupt Netanyahu to extend his political career, is driving the protests against the regime. On Saturday 13th January there was an estimated 120 000 protestors in Tel Aviv, some who even began to block the highways. We remember that a few months ago that hundreds of thousands were protesting against Netanyahu and thousands of reservists and pilots openly said they would refuse any call up to the IDF. The current protest movement is certainly heading in that direction once again and may even bring open street fighting against the Israeli regime.
War Fatigue
The growing revelations that the Israeli regime lied about many aspects of their claims about Oct 7, taken together with the fact that the genocidal war has dragged on for over 100 days, has started to deepen the war fatigue among the Israeli masses. The longer it goes on the more the lies are exposed to many more people. Imperialism has long created the illusion of Israel being a stable society. The irony is that the 75 years of permanent subsidy that has created and sustained Israel has also been built on a lavish lifestyle. There have been 3 generations of Israelis who expect a comfortable life and who are used to pushing around children, women and pensioners. Being faced with a guerilla that has some training and a network of tunnels to hide in and now a vast area of ruins to move in and out of, is quite a different proposition. The losses to the Israeli masses have been unprecedented and huge. Spending 100 days in claustrophobic conditions, not knowing where and when to sleep and having the discomfort of being in Pampers nappies for all this time, is not exactly their idea of living in a comfort zone.
International factors
Every week there are hundreds of millions of the masses, if not already in the order of billions, who watch in horror at the unfolding genocide. The hatred to Israel and the US imperialism and every imperialism has grown exponentially. The true bloody, cruel and brutal nature of imperialism is exposed. There are millions protesting every week. Often there are daily protests. Now that the holiday season is over and organizations and unions start to gear up to work again, the protests are likely to deepen in content. The boycott movement is already impacting many imperialist companies. The lethargic and weakened union movement is slowly being forced into concrete action. The Segovas union in Italy is already calling for a global general strike for Palestine. Such calls are slowly gathering ground. The unprecedented slaughter of children, women, medics, journalists, the bombing of hospitals, the murder of civilians, the assassination of academics, the daily massacres that wipe out entire families are etched in the memories of billions of the masses who now want accountability. A huge percentage of the youth in the USA want Israel erased and want a free Palestine. The wide support for a free Palestine from the river to the sea also reflects this sentiment. Rather obvious the sentiment is of erasure of the state not of the people. The concept of Jews,Muslims, Christians and others living in peace as neighbours in one state, is what is gaining huge support.
In the USA only 5% of the masses identify with their Senators. There are huge possibilities for a new party to develop in the US against the Republican and Democratic party. There is also the possible rise of anti-parliamentarism, especially as calls for a ceasefire is finding no legal channel to be effectively expressed. The rather pathetic PR stunt by Bernie Sanders to call for a vote in the Senate based on investigating Israel’s war crimes and linking it to conditions for arms, conveniently forgets that Sanders himself was one of the genocidaires who opposed a ceasefire. He played a major role in justifying the slaughter in Gaza. He is just trying to demonstrate to the masses breaking from the Democratic party that they still have a home there. Expect him to play his usual sobbing role that Genocide Joe is a better option than Trump in November (elections).
The absence of and the complicity of all the international institutions such as the UN and of the role of the Egyptian regime and Arab regimes in doing nothing to stop the genocide and not forcing an end to the mass slaughter of the Palestinian masses in Gaza, means that on a global scale there is a growing rise of revolt, a wave like the post 2011 wave of revolutions is about to break out again. Living through the genocide played out live, daily, is pushing the masses to the path of revolution.
Huge numbers killed and maimed and starved in Gaza
The masses in Gaza have endured so much pain and hardship that is hard to fathom. The level of pain should not be taken for granted even for one second. Imperialism is deliberately delaying any resolution, hoping to break the spirit of the masses in Gaza. Thus far they have failed and the masses have lost so much they are determined to stay. Yet every hour or every moment of suffering should not be taken for granted.
The ICJ shortcomings and power relations
The ICJ is an arm of the United Nations. It is a political court and has nothing to do with justice. The UN Security Council has the power to act. All the major imperialist powers have seats on the 15 judge panel and various of the countries have already indicated which way they are going to push. France, Germany and the US have already openly declared that it is not a genocide and we know that Uganda and possibly others will follow the US imperialist line. The Palestinian resistance is not directly represented as well. How can a court decide on the fate of the Palestinians when they are not directly represented. Israel is not only represented but also has a judge on the panel. In other words, the perpetrators of genocide are well represented on the ICJ, the Palestinians only have indirect representation from South Africa that has historically supported the PA (Palestinian Authority) which is nothing but a subcontractor to the Israeli regime.
The numerous UN SC resolutions ignored by Israel and imperialism. Since 1948 Israel has not only ignored over 40 UN Security Council resolutions but they were never held to account.
The future of the lives of Palestinians is being left to a tool of imperialism. That is unwise to give imperialism that power. Imperialism is behind the genocide. How can they bring justice to Palestinians. Palestinians can only depend on a process where they are directly represented and where they have chosen at least 50% of the panel. Even in the unlikely event that the ICJ grants interim relief it will be in such a way that validates and sustains Israel and undermines and weakens the cause of the Palestinian masses. We only have to look at the 2004 ruling that the apartheid wall in and around the West Bank was illegal to see what will happen. Israel not only ignored the ruling, they extended the wall and flooded the area and still do, with more and more settlers. There are over 700 000 settlers on Palestinian land in the West Bank. Imperialism not only supports this process but has continually subsidised Israel and encouraged them to continue with this process, despite the occasional statement to the contrary.
Imperialism is targeting Iran as its next major war/invasion?
The imperialist site , Understanding War, which has been advising Israel and imperialism on their genocidal campaign, does not even list the campaign as Palestine but as an ‘Iran update’. They are already preparing the minds of the academia and mainstream media and thus the masses that the Iranian regime is behind the ‘attacks’ of the 7 Oct. This is a total distortion. The Palestinians have a long independent history of their fight for liberation. They are not being directed by the Iranian regime. The imperialist think tank is preparing the grounds for possible war with Iran. Imperialism needs war. They are now creating the grounds for their next one.
Conclusion
The need to restart negotiations and concerted efforts to wage peace
Despite all the continued provocations and distortions by imperialism it is important for the joint Palestinian resistance to indicate its willingness to enter into negotiations for peace. They should publicly declare this and repeatedly and patiently clarify its position and continue to expose the lies of imperialism.
Imperialism will be put on the back foot. Imperialism talks peace but acts war. They will be exposed. If they and the Zionist regime put in more obstacles in the way of peace it will cause the protest movement in the US, the UK and around the world to grow even further. The Egyptian regime and Jordanian regime as well as the Saudis will be even more exposed as the ones who are aiding the genocide. Massive protests against these regimes from their own masses is more likely to break out. The protest movements in the US and UK and Germany and France will grow and could reach a point of mass civil disobedience. The masses in Israel will see its regime for what it is and the protests could start reaching the point of hundreds of thousands and could deepen the split that is already growing in their army.
All these factors will help the Palestinians to be more in control of its own destiny. Palestinians are not a footnote in a court room where they are not even able to speak for themselves. They are the authors of their own destiny. The relief efforts would be more in the hands of the Palestinian masses themselves, supported by the masses of the world.
Another important factor would be to weaken the imperialist war machine that needs war to survive. The biggest missile that the Palestinian resistance can throw at imperialism is to wage peace.
18.1.2024
WIVL
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